Gold Price Drops as US-EU Trade Talks Spark Dollar Rally

Gold price dropped by a lot on Tuesday. Spot gold fell 1.3% to $3,299.89 an ounce as US-EU trade relations improved. Come to David Stern Jewelers Today to Sell Your Gold for Cash. The US delayed European Union tariffs which strengthened the dollar. This made gold more expensive for overseas buyers. US gold futures saw an even sharper decline and fell 2% to $3,298.2 when investors reacted to better trade relations between major economies.

Gold has climbed more than 25% this year. The current prices trade about $200 below last month’s all-time high. Citigroup Inc. has raised its short-term gold price target to $3,500 per ounce despite this recent dip. The weakness in gold spot price comes as investors expect 47 basis points of interest rate cuts by year-end. Economic data later this week could change market expectations. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds have seen outflows for five straight weeks. This started after they hit their highest level in over a year during mid-April.

US delays EU tariffs, sparking dollar rally

President Donald Trump reversed his stance on implementing steep tariffs against the European Union. This reversal gave a most important boost to global markets and pushed gold prices down as investors moved away from safe-haven assets.

Trump postpones tariff deadline to July 9

Trump announced plans to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports starting June 1. He expressed frustration because trade negotiations with the EU were “going nowhere”. The unexpected announcement on Friday created turmoil in financial markets. Major U.S. stock indexes and European shares dropped while the dollar weakened.

The situation changed faster after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen contacted Trump. She asked for more time to finalize a detailed trade agreement during their Sunday phone call and requested an extension until July 9. Trump accepted the postponement and told reporters: “We had a very nice call, and I agreed to move it. She said we will rapidly get together and see if we can work something out”.

EU accelerates trade negotiations

The European Union committed to speed up the negotiation process after the call. EU officials announced plans to “fast-track” the trade talks. European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho noted there was “new impetus” for the negotiations.

“They agreed both to fast-track the trade negotiations and to stay in close contact,” Pinho told reporters. She added that “from our side, we always said we were ready to make a deal”.

The EU’s chief trade negotiator, Maros Sefcovic, had “good calls” with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Sefcovic emphasized the bloc’s full commitment to reaching an agreement with the United States by the July deadline.

The EU had proposed these measures before this development:

• Joint reduction of industrial goods tariffs
• Codevelopment of data centers for artificial intelligence
• Improved EU access for some U.S. agricultural goods

U.S. officials want to reduce their country’s goods trade deficit of over $200 billion with the EU.

Markets interpret move as easing trade tensions

Tuesday saw a notable rally in global financial markets due to the tariff implementation delay. European shares started the week on a positive note. Investors responded to the temporary trade truce and recovered previous losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1% after losing 0.9% on Friday.

Wall Street’s main stock markets bounced back as trading resumed after the Memorial Day weekend. The broad-based S&P 500 gained more than one percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.4%.

Sectors sensitive to tariff pressures showed strong performance:

• The automobiles and parts index rebounded by 1.4%
• Luxury stocks, highly exposed to the U.S. market, also gained
• Banks saw positive movement

The euro grew stronger against the dollar, which had slumped since Trump’s tariffs push last month. This currency movement and the general move away from safe-haven assets pushed gold prices down as investor confidence improved.

Stronger dollar pressures gold prices

_{Image Source: DailyForex}

The inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar pushed precious metal prices down as trade tensions eased. Gold, priced globally in dollars, quickly responded to currency market changes throughout Tuesday’s trading session.

Gold becomes more expensive for overseas buyers

The traditional inverse correlation between gold and the dollar showed its strength after the U.S.-EU trade agreement news. A stronger dollar typically weakens gold because each unit of foreign currency buys less gold, which makes the precious metal costlier for international investors. This price dynamic reduces overseas demand and pushes gold values down in global markets.

“A stronger U.S. dollar will suppress the price of gold, while a weaker U.S. dollar will likely drive the price of gold higher through increased demand,” explains Henry Yoshida, co-founder of Rocket Dollar. Gold’s status as a dollar-denominated commodity traded internationally creates this relationship.

The process works simply: a stronger dollar against major currencies means foreign buyers need more local currency to buy the same amount of gold. Dollar-denominated assets become more attractive to yield-seeking investors compared to non-yielding gold when the U.S. currency gains value.

Dollar index gains 0.4% after original dip

The dollar index climbed 0.3% during Thursday’s trading session and reached 0.4% by Tuesday afternoon. This movement followed an original weakening period after Trump’s announcement of potential EU tariffs last month.

The currency gained strength near the end of Asian trading after Japan’s Ministry of Finance announced possible reductions in bond issuance volumes. Japanese yields fell and triggered spillover effects that helped the greenback against several major currencies.

Market history reveals unusual patterns in this relationship. Both gold and the dollar showed remarkable strength simultaneously in 2023 and 2024 – a rare occurrence as gold surged past $2,000 per ounce while the Dollar Index remained resilient.

Gold spot price drops over 1%

Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday:

• Spot gold declined more than 1% to below $3,310 per ounce
• U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% lower at $3,298.40
• The metal pulled back from a two-week high of $3,340 reached in earlier sessions

This marked the second straight session of losses as safe-haven demand weakened due to investor optimism about improving trade relations. Jim Wycoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, noted: “We’re seeing some profit taking pressure from recent gains and a firmer U.S. dollar index is another bearish factor”.

Gold faces extra pressure from shifting investor sentiment about U.S. financial policies. “In the short term, equities have appeared more attractive to investors as they anticipate an upcoming period of pro-business policies, such as reduced tax and regulation,” according to market analysts.

Jack Hanney, CEO of Patriot Gold Group, explains “If the dollar strengthens aggressively against other currencies, gold usually takes a hit because it becomes more expensive for foreign buyers”. A quick 5-10% jump in the Dollar Index would seriously impact gold prices.

Gold has risen 25.74% since early 2025 according to trading data, which shows the metal’s strong performance this year despite recent currency-driven volatility.

Investor sentiment shifts amid reduced safe-haven demand

The easing trade tension between the US and Europe has transformed investor sentiment toward gold. The precious metal’s status as a preferred safe-haven asset has diminished. Market dynamics have created strong headwinds for gold prices beyond currency effects.

Stock market gains reduce gold’s appeal

Global equity markets gained substantially after trade tensions cooled down. This directly affected gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Wall Street’s three main indexes tracked weekly gains as investor risk appetite grew after prolonged uncertainty. Futures traders took profits and triggered a week-long wave of liquidation in the gold market.

“Reduced haven demand and rising stock markets are weighing on gold,” noted Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. The S&P 500 futures climbed an additional 1% after the strong jobs report. This created a challenging environment for non-yielding assets like gold. Gold’s upward momentum faced strong resistance as equity markets showed renewed strength.

Technical selling adds to downward pressure

Gold faces mounting pressure from technical selling patterns. Hansen pointed out that gold trades below a descending trendline drawn from the April all-time high. The technical structure suggests caution as price action approaches the 50-day moving average.

Sellers increased their positions after the price broke below an upward trendline today. They aim for a larger pullback toward the $3278 level. Daily price swings of $25 to $50 have become normal in the gold market. These swings reflect heightened sensitivity to economic indicators and geopolitical developments that evolve faster.

A firmer dollar and reduced geopolitical stress create immediate resistance at Friday’s high of $3336.02. Downside pivots stand at $3310.48 and $3270.91.

Analysts expect short-term consolidation

Many analysts predict a consolidation phase instead of a dramatic decline, despite recent volatility. “The high is likely in, but uncertainty will keep prices supported,” noted Rhona O’Connell of StoneX. She stressed that “gold is still consolidating” and expects prices to stay supported while markets deal with continued uncertainty.

Citi expects gold prices to stabilize around current levels. They see strong potential for range-bound trading between $3100 and $3500 in the second half of 2025. The bank sees this period as a chance for tactical positioning rather than directional bets.

Market experts remain divided about gold’s next move after its retreat from record highs. They present compelling arguments for both deeper correction and mere consolidation scenarios. The market now waits for the next key catalyst to spark a breakout and a more sustained trend.

Gold ETF outflows and central bank buying diverge

The gold market shows opposing trends as institutional investors and central banks take different approaches. Gold’s recent price volatility affects market participants in various ways, and the behavior difference between ETF investors and central banks points to complex market dynamics.

ETFs see five weeks of outflows

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds face steady redemptions that have lasted five straight weeks since reaching their peak in mid-April. This represents a major shift from early 2025 when global gold ETFs switched from outflows to inflows. Recent data reveals gold ETFs experienced their largest outflows in four years, totaling about $2.20 billion. The situation became more dramatic when Bank of America reported gold funds took a $2.90 billion hit in just one week, making it the third-largest weekly outflow ever recorded.

China’s central bank continues gold accumulation

The People’s Bank of China stays committed to its buying strategy and has added gold to its reserves for five straight months. The bank’s gold reserves grew to 73.61 million fine troy ounces by February’s end, up from 73.45 million in January. This commitment aligns with the global trend, as central banks worldwide have bought over 1,000 metric tons for three years straight in 2024. Central banks have acquired about 100 million ounces since 2020, while ETFs have reduced their holdings by roughly 30 million ounces.

Gold imports in China surge 73% in April

China’s gold imports through Hong Kong reached their highest level in over a year, nearly tripling month-over-month in April. Net imports reached 43.462 metric tons, a stark contrast to March’s 4.889 metric tons net exports. Total gold imports hit 58.61 metric tons in April, showing a 178.17% jump from March’s 21.07 tons. The nation bought 224.88 tons in 2023 alone, and this recent import surge shows China’s renewed faith in gold’s future after months of net exports.

Markets await Fed signals and inflation data

Traders now watch gold’s recent volatility while looking at upcoming economic data. These numbers could substantially influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and gold prices in coming months.

Core PCE inflation data due Friday

Investors are happy to anticipate Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which serves as the Fed’s preferred inflation gage. Economists project a 0.3% monthly increase with overall PCE inflation expected to rise 2.5% annually. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should increase 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. This data remains significant since inflation stays above the Fed’s 2% target. The current policy stance might remain unchanged well into 2025.

“The Fed has already clearly said they are on hold until they have more certainty that inflation will slow down and more certainty about economic policy,” noted economists tracking the situation. Recent mixed-to-weaker US data suggests inflationary pressures might ease.

Rate cut expectations priced in for September

Financial markets currently anticipate:

• 97.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in March
• 55% chance of a rate cut by mid-year
• 57% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and 43% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction by September

Markets fully price in a September rate cut according to the CME FedWatch tool. This represents the Fed’s first reduction since 2020. Traders expect about 47 basis points of cuts by year-end. These expectations are the foundations for gold’s longer-term performance.

Lower rates could support gold in long term

A Federal Reserve pivot toward rate cuts usually benefits gold prices beyond short-term swings. Gold becomes more attractive as interest rates fall because the cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases. Gold runs on low-rate environments traditionally.

The expected rate-cutting cycle starting in September could bring significant inflows into gold. This includes potential moves from the $6 trillion currently sitting in money market funds. Gold’s appeal during economic uncertainty combined with this monetary policy change might provide substantial price support despite current volatility.

Gold’s Path Forward Amid Moving Economic Landscape

Gold shows both strength and weakness during market volatility. Gold prices dropped 1.3% to $3,299.89 an ounce, yet maintain impressive gains of over 25% this year. Several factors combined to cause this pullback rather than any weakness in gold’s basic appeal.

The unexpected improvement in US-EU trade relations changed market dynamics completely. President Trump’s decision to delay tariffs until July 9 strengthened the dollar. This made gold more expensive for buyers worldwide. Investors moved their money to stock markets as confidence grew, which reduced gold’s appeal as a safe investment during this calm period.

A striking contrast exists between ETF outflows and central bank purchases. Gold-backed ETFs saw withdrawals for five straight weeks. Meanwhile, China’s central bank kept building its reserves and almost tripled its gold imports through Hong Kong in April. This behavior expresses different viewpoints on gold’s long-term value among market players.

Friday’s PCE inflation data will without doubt help us learn about possible Federal Reserve decisions. Markets predict about 47 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. September seems to be the starting point for easier monetary policy. Short-term price swings will continue, but lower rates usually help gold prices by making non-yielding assets more attractive.

This price correction offers a chance rather than a reason to worry. The foundations that support gold remain strong – inflation above the Fed’s target, predicted rate cuts, central bank buying, and ongoing economic uncertainty. While short-term changes need careful watching, gold’s future looks promising based on these market forces.

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